Japan Quake Risk Rises
Japan Warns of Big Earthquake Risk in Next 30 Years
Earthquakes are very hard to predict. But in January, a Japanese government group said there is now a 75–82% chance that a huge earthquake will happen in the Nankai Trough (a deep area under the sea near Japan) within the next 30 years.
In March, the government shared a new estimate. It said that if this big earthquake and tsunami happen, up to 298,000 people could die and damage could reach $2 trillion.
Back in 2014, Japan’s disaster agency made a safety plan. It had steps that could reduce deaths by 80%. But so far, those actions would only reduce deaths by 20%, according to Kyodo News.
So on Tuesday, the government made a new updated safety plan. It says Japan needs to:
Build sea walls and safe evacuation buildings
Hold regular emergency drills
Improve public awareness
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said that the government, local groups, companies, and charities must all work together to save as many lives as possible.
What is the Nankai Trough?
The Nankai Trough is an 800-kilometer (500-mile) long trench under the Pacific Ocean near Japan. There, one tectonic plate slowly slides under another, which can cause big earthquakes.
In the last 1,400 years, very strong earthquakes have happened in this area every 100 to 200 years. The last one was in 1946.
Last August, Japan’s weather agency gave a warning that the chance of a big earthquake had increased. But they removed the warning after a week.
Fears Spread by Social Media and Comics
Some foreign tourists are afraid to come to Japan this summer. On social media, people are wrongly saying a huge earthquake will happen soon.
One big reason is a manga comic, reprinted in 2021, that predicted a disaster on July 5, 2025. Many people are worried because of this.
Because of the fear, Greater Bay Airlines, based in Hong Kong, cut flights to Japan in May. A tourism official said people were canceling trips.
In May, the number of tourists from Hong Kong dropped by 11.2% compared to last year. But visitors from China increased by 44.8%, and from South Korea by 11.8%.
What Experts Say
Ryoichi Nomura, head of Japan’s weather agency, said in May:
“With current science, we cannot predict the exact time, place, or size of an earthquake. We ask people to stay prepared at all times and not panic because of rumors.”
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