On 20 October 2018, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S is withdrawing from the INF treaty accusing Russia of violating the obligations of the treaty for many years. Moreover, He figured out that China is building up its missile arsenals in the Pacific, especially in the South China Sea which harms the interests of the U.S in the region. He emphasized that China should be included in the treaty as part of multi-lateralization of the INF Treaty. China opposed the idea of multilateralization of the INF Treaty as its 90% ballistic and cruise missiles come under the restriction of the INF treaty and stated that accusing Russia of violating its obligations as a scapegoat and their intentions are to contain China in the Indo-Pacific region. Chinese authorities reviewing the U.S withdrawal decision which is likely affected by a variety of issues including U.S-China conventional balance, regional security, etc.
The INF Treaty was signed during the cold war in 1987 in order to prohibit Russia and U.S from developing, testing, or acquiring nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles and conventional cruise missiles with ranges ranging from 500km to 5,500km, comprising short to intermediate ranges. The basic aim of this treaty was to avoid immediate nuclear attacks which both countries are vulnerable to it as it is difficult to incept intermediate and short-range missiles.
Policy implications for China
China rejected the proposal of the “multilateralization of INF treaty” because China is surrounded by four nuclear-armed states. The pillar of China’s nuclear deterrence is nuclear land-based ballistic missiles. In comparison, the US has not required INF to deter its neighbours from land-based nuclear missile systems and Russia relies on INF capabilities of air and navy which is excluded from INF restrictions.
The U.S decision to withdraw from the INF treaty would likely affect following a variety of issues:
The deployment of U.S conventional medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs)/intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) in the pacific after withdrawal from the treaty represents a serious threat to China. U.S military’s ability will be enhanced by MRBMs/IRBMs for targeting the Chinese missile system. This threat will affect the anti-access/area-denial 2D strategy (ten imaginary lines in South East China which China claim part of its territory known as the anti-access/area-denial region) of china and ultimately Conventional superiority of MRBMs/IRBMs would give U.S leverage over China in Indo-Pacific region. This leverage of superiority would use as a threat to blackmail China to comprise on its terms. Consequently, the threat of conventional superiority compels china to develop enhanced missile capabilities. As a result, a new arms race will flourish in the Indo-Pacific region.
After withdrawal from the INF treaty, The U.S along with its allies would further enhance its strong influence in Indo- The pacific region and can tend to block international sea lines of communication (SLOCs). Despite U.S naval patrols in the region, land-based anti-ship intermediate-range missiles will reduce the influence of China in the South China Sea as it has high operational flexibility capability and is cost-effective. These intermediate missile systems reduce the ability of China to conduct operations in offshore waters. Along with air and naval platforms, the land-based intermediated missile capability would further enhance U.S control over international seaways especially the Strait of Malacca.
The chances of nuclear escalation might increase during conventional military conflict. The United States Department of Defense’s decision to produce low-yield nuclear warheads as published in the Nuclear Posture Review published in February 2018 which eventually reduces the nuclear threshold. Unfortunately, an intermediate-range missile is ideal for a low-yield nuclear warhead. During extreme stress of war, the defending nation could fail to differentiate between a missile carrying a conventional warhead and one carrying a nuclear payload, mistaking an incoming missile to consider for a nuclear attack and responding with its own nuclear arsenal.
The future deployment of the U.S land-based intermediate missile systems in territories of its allies like Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and Japan will negatively impact regional security. Such deployments will boost the US military’s presence and trigger an arms race. The expanded “footprint” of the US armed forces in Asia would not only improve their future operations capability, but it would also show that the US has met its defence obligations to its allies, inciting anti-China forces. Despite China’s objections to the arms race, the presence of aggressive weapons on its doorstep is equivalent to a dagger at the throat. As a result, China will be forced to develop costly missile defence systems and eventually drag into an arms race.
The arrival of US intermediate-range missiles would not only strengthen America’s deterrent posture but will also enable it to intervene in the internal affairs of others, forcing its will on them. In this way, the U.S will strengthen its influence over allies, encouraging them to isolate China in the region.
Although China opposed the multilateralization of the INF treaty but ready for talks for arms control agreements. Trilateral comprehensive talks between Russia, China and U.S.A should be immediately held to defuse tension before it turns into conflict.
The writer is a student at SZABIST University Islamabad