China’s Export Surge Amid Economic Slowdown Impact of Trump’s Tariffs
Overseas shipments represented a rare bright spot in China’s economy last year as sluggish domestic consumption and a prolonged crisis in the property sector dragged on growth.
Total exports last year “exceeded 25 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 25.45 trillion yuan ($3.47 trillion)… a year-on-year increase of 7.1 percent”, state broadcaster CCTV said.
Imports totaled 18.39 trillion yuan, a rise of 2.3 percent on-year, CCTV said, adding that combined trade swelled five percent to reach a record 43.85 trillion yuan.
Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on China during his first term in office and has threatened even heftier levies when he returns to the White House next week.
Official customs data showed Monday that exports in December jumped 10.7 percent year-on-year, comfortably outperforming a forecast of 7.5 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Imports last month grew one percent year-on-year, compared with a Bloomberg forecast of a one percent decline.
Observers have pointed out that exports were likely boosted by companies ramping up stockpiles ahead of Trump’s second term amid fears of a painful trade war.
China’s shipments “are likely to stay resilient in the near-term”, Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note.
“But outbound shipments will weaken later this year if Trump follows through on his threat to impose 60 percent tariffs on all Chinese goods,” she wrote.
“We estimate this could reduce export volumes by about three percent and shave roughly 0.5 percent off China’s GDP.”
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