UN Warns of Rising La Niña Risk in 2025
UN Agency Warns of Rising Chances of La Niña This Year
GENEVA – The United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is a growing likelihood of La Niña conditions developing later this year, with global weather patterns set to feel its impact.
La Niña is a natural climate phenomenon that cools ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, disrupting rainfall, wind, and pressure patterns across the globe. It alternates with El Niño — its warmer counterpart — and periods of neutral conditions in between.
According to the WMO’s latest quarterly outlook, there is a 55 percent chance of La Niña forming between September and November, with the probability rising to 60 percent for October to December 2025. The agency noted there is little chance of El Niño emerging during this time.
Global Weather Impacts
While El Niño tends to bring hotter oceans and extreme weather swings, La Niña often triggers the opposite effects. It can bring drought to some regions while causing floods and heavy rains in others, particularly across tropical areas.
The world last witnessed a prolonged La Niña event from 2020 to 2023, dubbed a “triple-dip” La Niña. It was the first of its kind in the 21st century and only the third since 1950. The event worsened both droughts and flooding worldwide but did little to cool record-breaking global temperatures.
Despite La Niña’s cooling influence, the past decade has been the hottest ever recorded, with 2024 marking the hottest year in history. Temperatures have remained at near-record levels even after El Niño faded last year.
Climate Change Backdrop
The WMO stressed that natural events like El Niño and La Niña are now unfolding against the backdrop of human-driven climate change, which is accelerating global warming, intensifying extreme weather, and shifting rainfall and temperature patterns.
For the coming September to November period, WMO forecasts suggest above-normal temperatures for much of the northern and southern hemispheres.
“Seasonal forecasts for El Niño and La Niña are crucial climate intelligence tools,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “They save lives, protect key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and health, and help governments prepare for weather-related disasters.”
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