Ishiba Wins LDP Leadership Plans October Election

Ishiba, 67, on Friday won a tight race to head the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed almost constantly for decades. He says he intends to call an election for October 27.

The lower house of parliament, where the LDP has a majority, approved Ishiba’s appointment early afternoon on Tuesday, with the upper house expected to follow suit soon afterwards.

Former chief cabinet secretary Katsunobu Kato was tipped to become finance minister, while Gen Nakatani will take defence and Takeshi Iwaya foreign affairs, local media said.

Ishiba has held at least three previous ministerial posts and is a confessed defence “geek” who tried and failed four times before becoming LDP leader.

He finally succeeded this time because, while a divisive figure within the party, he is — unlike predecessor Fumio Kishida — relatively popular among voters, analysts said.

Ishiba’s win “indicates that the LDP sought an experienced leader with broad voter appeal to steer the party in the next national election,” said Yuko Nakano of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“If the ruling coalition secures a fresh mandate (in the election), Ishiba will have the opportunity to reshape the party’s internal dynamics and restore public confidence, while addressing Japan’s broader challenges, including economic stagnation felt by many voters and regional security concerns,” she said.

Tumbling stocks

Markets, however, have reacted negatively, with the Nikkei plunging almost five per cent on Monday. On Tuesday, the index recovered some ground, up 1.6 per cent late morning.

Ishiba’s backing of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan has sent the yen higher, while the prospect of corporate tax hikes has worried investors.

One major area of government spending is the military.

Kishida undertook to double defence spending and boost ties with the United States and other countries rattled by China’s rise and the behaviour of Russia and North Korea.

Ishiba, who visited Taiwan in August, backs the creation of a military alliance in the region along the lines of NATO with its tenet of collective defence.

Replacing Russia with China and Ukraine with Taiwan, the absence of a collective self-defence system like NATO in Asia means that wars are likely to break out because there is no obligation for mutual defence,” Ishiba said in a recent policy paper.