Trade with India continues to be illusive

The persons acquainted with the situation say that there is no agreement among the players for the resumption of commercial connections between India and Pakistan.

Speaking at a press conference in London on Saturday, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar echoed the opinions of the nation’s business and trade community when he said that Pakistan would seriously explore resuming commercial relations with India.

In response to the Indian government’s unilateral announcement on August 5, 2019, to abolish the special status of the disputed Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), Pakistan banned bilateral trade as part of a series of actions.

Islamabad has already demanded that India reevaluate its position on IIOJK before allowing commerce to resume.

The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf administration was on the verge of removing the embargo in March 2021 when the cabinet’s Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) decided to partly allow commerce with India. But the federal cabinet opposed the proposal after several members cautioned Imran Khan, the prime minister at the time, that it would be a political suicide.

Normalizing relations with India was a priority for the security establishment, led by army chief general (retired) Qamar Javed Bajwa at the time.

According to Dar most recent remarks, there could be a new drive to ease tensions with India.

However, sources informed on Sunday that no firm plan for the restoration of commercial relations between India and Pakistan was currently on the table.

It’s thought that different stakeholders have different perspectives on the move. There are differing opinions even inside the Foreign Office, which sources claimed was not unusual.

Some people support Pakistan’s position that normalization shouldn’t happen unless India makes significant concessions.

Some, nevertheless, adopt a more practical and grounded perspective. They think Pakistan may learn from China’s strategies. Despite their tense relations and border conflicts, China and India continue to engage in commerce.

Although Gen (retd) Bajwa was eager to strengthen his relationship with India, little is known about his replacement. Certain analysts speculate that Dar’s declaration on the restoration of connections could have the approval of higher authorities.

Resuming commerce with India is supported by the belief that regional trade might alleviate Pakistan’s economic difficulties.

An multinational financial institution’s report highlighted Pakistan and India’s enormous trade potential. According to the analysis, there is a potential for approximately $25 billion in commerce between India and Pakistan.

Official sources, however, doubt that things will turn out well. Pakistan, according to the Foreign Office, should hold off until after the April and May elections in India, which are expected to happen in stages.

Only once a new administration takes office in New Delhi in May will the whole picture become evident.

Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi congratulated Shehbaz Sharif on winning the election, however many people took issue with his brief remarks.

Despite their tight relationship, many interpret Modi’s speech to indicate that India wishes to maintain the door of communication open with Pakistan.