Oil amidst troubled waters
Dubai hosted this year’s Conference of Parties of the 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, more commonly known as COP28. It was the eighth annual meeting since 1992 and, like its predecessors, its purpose was to adopt policies to restrict increases in global temperatures and enable adaptation to the effects of climate change. This year, it collapsed once more due to two issues: money and oil, which may not make sense if current trends continue.
Stepping up their arguments, those advocating for a total phaseout of fossil fuels are now advocating for an end to global warming. That has far more dire repercussions since it prevents developing countries from ever becoming developed and leaves developed countries with no way to maintain their current standard of living.COP 28 As the CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company Limited, Chairman Sultan Al-Jabber is the first representative of Big Oil to chair the Conference. Both Indonesia in 2007 and Qatar in 2012, two OPEC nations, hosted the conference; however, neither nation appointed its CEO of the national oil firm to serve as conference chairman.
A phase-out of fossil fuels would drive the majority of OPEC nations into bankruptcy.. In addition to them, the other significant oil producer, the USSR, constitutes OPEC+ when it comes to quota setting. The so-called “oil weapon,” which peaked in OPEC’s potency during the 1973 oil embargo, is again defending itself. Saudi Arabia spearheaded the opposition in 1973 and continues to do so now, postponing the final agreement’s draft in order to remove the phrase “fossil fuel phaseout.”
OPEC countries assert that instead of phasing out fossil fuels, efforts should focus on targeting their usage. It is a fact that the use of fossil fuels, not their extraction and sale, is responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. Naturally, a decrease in demand would follow a fall in utilization.
However, there is a catch. The use of fossil fuels will be replaced by renewable energy. Fossil fuels find primary application in two areas: transportation and power production.As transportation increasingly adopts electric power, this requires additional generation, resulting in an escalation in the consumption of fossil fuels.
A phaseout will necessitate generation for both power and transportation, implying a significant shift to renewables such as hydro, solar, and wind .Gas producers such as Qatar and Russia have actively pursued natural gas, marketing it as a transitional alternative to petrol. Nevertheless, it will be phased out due to the release of greenhouse gases when burned. The science does not support a phaseout, according to the conference chairman. That sounds a lot like the first Big Oil argument—that the usage of fossil fuels was not the cause of global warming, despite scientific evidence to the contrary.
COP28 was more than a climate conference.
It brought together art, culture, and music to shape and celebrate global climate action.#COP28 #UnitedActedDelivered#UAEConsensus pic.twitter.com/INKUSPo75J
— COP28 UAE (@COP28_UAE) December 15, 2023
Acting Prime Minister Anwarul Haq Kakar asserted that Pakistan should fulfill its fair share of responsibilities due to its contribution to global warming. This highlighted another issue with governments, Since the onset of colonialism, the governments of the Third World, including Pakistan, have found themselves entangled in a debt trap. They now view the Damage and Loss Fund as a potential escape route from the foreign cash required to maintain their position in that trap.
Oil producers are right as nations to defend their right to sell their product. But what if there is nobody to buy, as will happen if the sale continues? Similarly, First World countries are right to be careful of their money, but what is the point of saving that money if the world goes down? Unfortunately, COP28 did not identify a new mantra which would work.
