Modi of India skips the IIOJK election while detractors contest integration claims

While traveling the country in the midst of a protracted election campaign, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is not running for office in Kashmir, where a 35-year insurgency against Indian control has claimed tens of thousands of lives. This is the first time since 1996 that the BJP has done so.

Rather, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), the National Conference, and strong local parties are the top candidates for the three seats in the Muslim-majority area. Although they want to run against one another, they both declare that they will support the opposition alliance led by the Congress party and reject the Hindu nationalist BJP.

Analysts and opposition parties claim that because Modi withdrew the region’s semi-autonomous status in 2019 and brought it under New Delhi’s supervision, the outcome is likely to contradict his narrative of a calm, more integrated Kashmir. For this reason, the BJP decided not to run in the election.

Because of its reputation for putting Hindus first, the BJP and its allies are expected to win a majority of the 543 seats in parliament. The party is running in every other region of India.

Omar Abdullah, the National Conference leader and a former chief minister of the state of Jammu & Kashmir, questioned, “Why are they absent from the election?”

Speaking from his house in Srinagar, the capital of Kashmir, he stated, “Clearly there is a gap between what the BJP claims to have done and the reality on the ground.”

After decades of carnage, Modi claims that his 2019 decision restored normalcy to Kashmir and that he will soon bring investments and jobs. The government’s stance is supported by the federal Home (Interior) Minister, Amit Shah, who asserts that young people today carry computers in their hands rather than the stones they threw at security personnel in the past.

The state of Jammu and Kashmir was divided into two federally governed regions as part of the move: the hilly, Buddhist-dominated Ladakh and the Muslim-dominated Kashmir valley with the Hindu-dominated Jammu plains.

At the time, Kashmir was placed under a strict lockdown by the government, and Abdullah and nearly all other local leaders were detained for months.

The head of the BJP’s Kashmir unit, Ravinder Raina, claimed the party’s decision to forego the poll was a part of a larger plan, though he would not elaborate.

He declared that in each of the three seats, “the BJP will not fight, but will support a candidate who will work for peace, happiness, brotherhood, and democracy.” The BJP has not yet declared which of the numerous minor parties that are competing it would back.

Interviews conducted in Kashmir and New Delhi with more than a dozen citizens, political figures, security personnel, and analysts reveal that resentment and estrangement are still simmering in the highly militarized Himalayan territory.

In addition to the three-decade insurgency, Kashmir is fully claimed by both Pakistan and India and is split into areas under their respective sovereignty. Since gaining independence in 1947, the nuclear-armed adversaries have fought two of their three wars over Kashmir.

Islamabad asserts that it simply offers moral support to the local population, despite India’s accusations that Pakistan has sponsored the insurgency in Kashmir.

In Pulwama town, which is close to Srinagar, Abdul Hameed, a 50-year-old owner of a clothing business, claimed that the federal government has concealed the real state of affairs in Kashmir since 2019.

However, it resembles a spring. They’ve currently destroyed it. But when will it open up again, who knows?” he remarked.

Tens of thousands of troops remain in the valley to maintain peace, despite the fact that restrictions on people’s movements are lessened than they were five years ago.

Human rights organizations and locals have been accusing Indian security personnel of crimes against the predominantly Muslim populace for decades. According to the administration, abuse incidents are isolated incidents, and any soldier found guilty of violating human rights will face legal action.

There are more than 100 active militants in the area, according to Indian military data, and they are said to target security personnel and foreign workers. In an attack on a military convoy on Saturday, militants killed one air force soldier, according to officials.

Retired law professor Sheikh Showkat Hussain of Srinagar remarked, “The fact that there isn’t an elected system over here is an indication that things are not as they are portrayed.” “This election should have been viewed by them (the BJP) as a referendum in their favor. However, they appear afraid.”

The BJP ran for all three of Kashmir’s seats in the general election held in May 2019 but was defeated by Abdullah’s National Conference. The BJP is running for two seats in Jammu and one in Ladakh this year; it had won all three seats in 2019.

The PDP head, Mehbooba Mufti, is running from the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency, which many thought would be the finest opportunity for the BJP to get a foothold in Kashmir in this election.

A commission constituted by the federal government altered the boundaries of the Kashmir and Jammu constituencies in 2022.

In 2019, Kashmir’s Anantnag saw the addition of over one million predominantly Hindu voters from Jammu’s Poonch and Rajouri districts, bringing the total number of mostly Muslim voters to about 1.6 million.

Mufti told Reuters that the Modi government was “changing the balance of the voters” by clubbing them. She stated that the goal of the BJP is to “disempower and they want to divest, dispossess Muslims, especially the Kashmiris.”

Abdullah of the National Conference also asserted that the district’s redrawing was carried out to provide the BJP with a “advantage”.

However, Abdullah stated that the fact that they chose not to nominate a candidate “tells you just how bad things must be for the BJP”.

But according to Raina of the BJP, the redrawing has improved the constituencies’ regional representation.