Pakistan faces dilemma on anti-Russia resolution

Pakistan’s diplomatic skills will be tested this week when the European countries will put to vote a resolution against Russia at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

In March, Islamabad abstained from voting against Russia, something that drew a strong reaction from the United States and other western countries. Pakistan joined China, India and many African countries to stay neutral.

The UNGA on Monday kicked off a special session to debate Russia’s recent attempt to annex four regions of Ukraine. The voting on the resolution is expected either on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Diplomatic sources told that Pakistan was approached by the US and other western countries to seek support in favour of the resolution. The US and its allies want to garner maximum support to isolate Russia. A similar resolution at the UN Security Council was vetoed by Moscow but no country has veto rights at the UNGA.

In order to address the concerns of countries, the European countries, in their draft resolution, did talk about the resolution of conflict through dialogue. That part was missing when the UNGA passed a resolution in March.

The Foreign Office (FO) is tightlipped over Pakistan’s strategy, but sources said that the country is unlikely to change its stance. Though there is a change of government, Pakistan’s position on the conflict between big powers has remained consistent, said a FO official while requesting anonymity.

In view of this, it is likely that Pakistan maintains neutrality and abstains from voting. However, given Pakistan’s recent flurry of engagements with the US and European countries, it will be a difficult proposition for the country to maintain that delicate balance.

The US and its allies believe that maintaining neutrality on the issue of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is tantamount to supporting Moscow.

Like Pakistan, India is also facing the dilemma of voting against Russia or abstaining from it.

India does not want to say in advance how it will vote at the UNGA on a likely draft resolution condemning Russia’s proclaimed annexation of parts of Ukraine, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said on Monday.

“As a matter of prudence and policy, we do not predict our votes in advance,” Jaishankar said during a joint media briefing along with Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong in Canberra.

To pass the resolution, the sponsors will need a two-thirds majority of countries present and voting “yes.” Abstentions do not count toward the two-thirds requirement.

Typically, the General Assembly would hold a public vote and record it so the world can see where each nation stands. But Russia has taken the unusual step of requesting a secret ballot — a format that is usually reserved for assembly actions such as elections to UN bodies, reported Voice of America.

In his letter, Nebenzia urged states to vote against the proposed resolution. He said that because there is “huge pressure” on countries to pick a side, Russia is proposing a secret ballot to give them “flexibility and breathing space.”

“It does not suggest a high degree of confidence in the outcome if Russia is seeking to obscure the vote count or the results,” the US official said.

A procedural vote could be called in the assembly to decide whether to use a recorded ballot or a secret ballot.

Ambassador Akram pointed out that “Pakistan also supports all efforts to provide humanitarian relief to civilians in the affected areas”.

The Pakistan government, he said, was most concerned about the safety and welfare of Pakistani citizens and students in Ukraine, noting that most of them had been evacuated. “Those remaining will be evacuated soonest,” said Mr Akram, adding that Pakistan appreciated the cooperation of the Ukrainian authorities as well as the Polish, Romanian and Hungarian governments in this context.

Besides Russia, four other countries also voted against the resolution while 35 states, including Pakistan, abstained.

Munir Akram says Islamabad ‘most concerned’ over safety of citizens, students still in Ukraine

Pakistan-Russia strategic relations:

 Russia has always preferred India to Pakistan and shied away from any proactive role in conflict resolution between India and Pakistan. Additionally, Russia has been unsure of Pakistan’s future and its strategic direction. In South Asia, Moscow seems to balance Russia’s interests proportionate to the strategic importance and economic advantage that each nation offers. Pakistan is a relatively small power undergoing internal and economic perils. It cannot match India’s power potential and offer the same scope of political, strategic, and economic influence that India wields in its relations with major powers. Yet, Pakistan is a very important piece in the emerging geopolitical chessboard in Eurasia. Notwithstanding the handicap of perpetual asymmetry vis-à-vis India, Pakistan leverages its geophysical location, strong military with advancing nuclear capability, and considerable influence in the Islamic world in its conduct of international relations.

In the past, Pakistan and Russia could not develop close ties because neither country fully trusted the other. However, given the mutual benefits to building relations, both countries are trying to move forward past lingering mistrust. For instance, Russia is apprehensive of Pakistan’s close alliances with the West, which have been established since early Cold War years, and it is now observing the nature of Pakistan’s deepening strategic relations with China. Likewise, Islamabad is concerned of Russia’s strategic relations with India. Over the past decade, with shifts in the international system (e.g., Russia’s resurgence under Pres. Vladimir Putin and the deterioration of US relations with Russia and Pakistan) have provided both countries a Machiavellian common cause by which to reevaluate their mutual relations. Russia is finding new opportunities in South Asia as the United States contemplates withdrawing from Afghanistan and simultaneously confronts Iran. Meanwhile, Islamabad is seeking new allies to compensate for its gradually fraying relations with Washington while Pakistan also faces new tensions with its archrival India, which is led by a revitalized right-wing Hindu nationalist government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Pakistan is attempting to influence its geo-economic significance, boosted by the fast-developing China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)—touted as a flagship of China’s Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Nascent Russia–Pakistan relations are developing under these changing geopolitical circumstances in South Asia.